Posted by
fact275 on Wednesday, October 29, 2008 11:00:00 PM
Considering how the media went ga-ga over Colin Powell's treacherous endorsement of Comrade Obama, I began thinking back to the aftermath of the First Gulf War. If you'll remember, President George H.W. Bush was prevailed upon by his advisors--including Powell--to end the war early after images of the infamous "Highway of Death" made him fear that public support for the war would erode. Bush also felt that the UN mandate to evict Iraq from Kuwait did not include removing Saddam. Another argument put forth by President Bush was that the Arab members of the Coalition would have left had they removed Saddam.
The result was that two Republican Guard divisions escaped destruction at the hands of the US Army's 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) and 24th Infantry Division (Mechanized). These divisions then helped Saddam put down Kurdish and Shiite rebellions that might have undone his rule.
Were General Powell and National Security Advisor Brent Scrowcraft right? The liberal conventional wisdom was that stopping the war early was the right thing to do as it avoided the messiness of an occupation of Iraq. I am certain in light of the left wing antipathy for the Iraq War, they would still postulate this.
But it's clear in hindsight that President Bush made a huge mistake in not toppling Saddam in 1991. Consider the following:
1. Bush and his advisers were still stuck in the Vietnam Syndrome. I remember seeing CNN's video of the Highway of Death with my father at a pizza place and though some customers took a glance, it was not a huge talking point.
2. If the Coalition had removed Saddam, the UN might have protested it but so what? The UN sure didn't stop Bill Clinton and NATO from attacking Yugoslavia over Kosovo in 1999 (or Bush's son in attacking Iraq in 2003).
3. As for the Arab nations leaving the Coalition, President Bush seems to have been misguided by his PR of a grand coalition. General Schwarzkopf blasted the performance of the Arab forces after the war. The Syrians, mistrustful of its Western partners, did little. The Gulf Nations only had token forces. The Saudis and Egyptians woefully underperformed. Once the Coalition had launched from Kuwait, it would have relied largely upon Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for its logistics. The Gulf Nations might have ejected Western forces if they had continued to Baghdad. But it's doubtful that the Saudis--so dependent on the West for support--would have done so. Kuwait, obviously, would not have.
4. In 1991, the US Army had not yet been hurt by Bush and Clinton's defense cuts. The active duty Army had 18 divisions. Today it has 10 (though some recent personnel increases give it an effective strength of perhaps 12). Those extra 8 divisions surely would have been enough for all the "Boots on the Ground" advocates during a 1991 Occupation.
5. The Soviet Union was about to collapse and a mischievous Vladimir Putin had not arisen to foil American ambitions around the globe.
6. The People's Republic of China was still recovering from the Tiananmen Square Massacre, and not yet in a position to likewise trouble American foreign policy.
7. Iran, which has supplied and supported the Iraqi insurgency, was still recovering from the Iran-Iraq War.
8. In the United States, public support was overwhelmingly in favor of the War and in that afterglow, probably would have been more supportive of an occupation than it would be 12 years later. The memories of Saddam's aggression were fresher in the average American's mind.
9. Most important, the Coalition already held much of Southern Iraq. With the Republican Guard destroyed, as General Schwarzkopf said in his famous post-war press conference, could have strolled right into Baghdad. Now that is an oversimplification, but the Coalition had to go through southern Iraq once again 12 years later.
When people ask me today if I still support Gulf War II (or the "Iraq War" as the press calls it), I say yes. The only way I say no is if it ends up costing the United States the ability to attack Iran if necessary. Iran, after all, has caused more harm to the United States than just about any other foreign nation since 1979. But all other things being equal, I believed Gulf War II was 12 years overdue, WMDs or not.
So to tie this back to Obama, before we anoint sainthood on General Powell, consider that his "wisdom" in 1991 was not so wise...and made the eventual removal of Saddam much more costly in blood and treasure than it would have been.