Mark Bowden, author of Black Hawk Down and Killing Pablo, is the first civilian to succinctly write for a casual audience about the erosion of American air supremacy and the dire need for more Lockheed F-22 Raptors for the US Air Force.

You need to read this article right away.

You read correctly. American pilots will die in future wars unless the Air Force procures more Lockheed F-22A Raptors.

I will never make a more important blog entry than this one.

Do not believe any Defense Department official who claims that we do not need any more than the 183 F-22s that Lockheed has produced or is manufacturing for the Air Force.

In the 1980s, under the Reagan buildup, the United States Air Force had the F-15C Eagle and the United States Navy had the F-14A Tomcat--two of the most fearsome fighters in air-to-air combat for their time. Both would end up combat-proven. But because both were expensive, the services complemented them with cheaper fighters--the F-16 Fighting Falcon (or "Viper" as it is known in the Air Force) and F/A-18 Hornet. These fighters took more of an air-to-ground role, adequately protected by their fearsome air-to-air partners.

The Eagle and Tomcat were 1960s designs; the Falcon and Hornet were 1970s designs. The services had plans of introducing the Advanced Technology Fighter/Naval Advanced Technology Fighter to replace the Eagle and Tomcat as the nation's premier air-to-air fighter.

However, thanks to the Bush 41 "Base Plan" defense cuts and the wholesale slashes of the Clinton era, the ATF development took forever and a year. The ATF development produced the Lockheed F-22 Raptor but it would take nearly 17 years from the first request for proposal until the Air Force would take delivery of its first Raptor. The NATF would be canceled--leaving the Navy to settle for the F/A-18 Super Hornet--an upgrade on the original Hornet but arguably less capable than the F-14 in its prime. The Navy does not have what is called a "Fifth Generation" air superiority fighter and there are no current plans for it to procure one.

The Air Force originally was to buy 750 F-22s, but by the 2000s, it had settled upon 381 as the base number to properly equip its Air and Space Expeditionary Forces.  However, the Bush Administration's Defense Department has only funded 183, leaving the Air Force far short of what it needs.

Why this is a big deal:

• The F-15 and F-16 fleets are breaking down.
  
• With only 183, the Air Force cannot adequately equip all of the ASEFs that it uses to cover current deployments and potential crises.
  
• The Russians are producing excellent fighter superior to everything but an F-22 and these fighters are available on a cash-and-carry basis.
• The cheaper F-35 Lightning, touted as a better substitute for the F-22, cannot compare.

Let's take these points in turn.

The F-15 and F-16 fleets are sufficient for now and the future

First, all things being equal, the skill of our pilots make the F-15 and F-16s still in service to be very formidable weapons. We have been treated to decades of raves about both aircraft but real-life is not a repeat of Top Gun on TNT. Even the best aircraft ages and our enemies--believe it or not--do upgrade.

The idea of using the F-15s and F-16s far into the future was seriously dented when a Missouri Air National Guard F-15C broke up in midair when a part called a "longeron" failed in the fuselage. Worldwide inspections showed a huge number of longerons were faulty. Added on to aging airframes, the longeron crisis grounded the US military's most formidable fighter and some have still not been cleared and never will be. The Air Force Association reports that F-16 airframes are also degrading under years of heavy use and combat. Boeing and Lockheed offer upgraded models but even those most souped-up versions lag behind the current Russian offerings.

Some critics claim that a post-Cold War world means that the F-22 is a dinosaur and that the United States faces no realistic threat to its ability to maintain its 66 year string of unbroken air superiority over the battlefield. Not so. The US, as Taiwan tensions, Iran's nuclear program, and the Georgia invasion show, faces all sorts of potential air-to-air threats. The F-22 has also been modified to carry air-to-ground weaponry, making it an ideal platform to "break down the door" of an enemy early in a conflict, not only engaging enemy fighters but also attacking radar sites and Surface-to-Air Missile sites using its superior sensors and low-observable (i.e., Stealthy) characteristics. The F-22 would then allow other aircraft behind it to get through more safely.

All the evidence from Air Force [Association] magazine (admittedly biased) and the UK Air Forces Monthly (not biased) shows that the F-22 is hammering its opposition in mock dogfights. Its smaller profile on radar gives it a huge advantage as does its vectoring thrust engines. The F-22 is racking up huge kill ratios against F-15s and F-16s. Air Forces Monthly reported an anecdote that the US Navy F-18 squadrons on the East Coast stopped exercising with the 1st Fighter Wing's F-22s because the Navy felt the continued high "losses" in mock combat was hurting morale. The same magazine reports that the Air Force's Fighter Weapons School is having trouble coming up with challenging enough air-to-air training for the F-22 students--having to throw many opponent aircraft against them just to make things hard for the Raptor pilots.

Current numbers of F-22s do not suffice

With only 183 F-22s ordered, the Air Force cannot equip all of its Air & Space Expeditionary Forces properly. The F-22 becomes a dreaded "Low Density/High Demand" asset, meaning a lot of commanders will want them, and there will not be enough to go around. Most Air Force wings have three fighter squadrons, but the Air Force is only able to equip two squadrons. Worse, only 20 aircraft are going to a squadron, not the usual 24. This leaves F-22 wings with a third squadron flying legacy aircraft.

Though the "Total Force" policy requires the Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard to be equipped with the latest aircraft, there will be no F-22s for them. Instead, the closest their pilots will get to an F-22 are "associate" squadrons where they provide pilots to share Air Force F-22s. The Air National Guard--the main provider of our air defense, very important in this post-9/11 world, will have to rely on the F-35, which was intended primarily for air-to-ground combat.

The Russians no longer sell junk

Things have not stayed static amongst other nations. Despite the desire of Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates to focus on asymmetric warfare and counter insurgency conflicts, conventional threats to our security increase. Russia, after years of neglect, is beginning to fund aircraft purchases and Russian designers never did stand still. The Sukhoi Su-30 family, sold off to Malaysia and India, are arguably superior to the F-15. China has ramped up the development of its fighter fleet, producing an indigenous version of the Russian Su-27, and also has the Su-30 in service. The U.S. Air Force faced the Indian Air Force in exercises a few years ago. Our F-15 pilots were hammered so hard by the Indian Su-30s that the exercise results were classified. The Russians also now offer the Su-35--the world's best fighter outside of the F-22.

A recent Air Forces Monthly article claimed that a European think tank had performed computer simulations of air-to-air combat. The French Rafale had a 1 to 1 kill ratio against the Su-35. For those of you in the civilian world, that is not good. The European Eurofighter Typhoon--flown by the RAF and Luftwaffe amongst others--had a 4 to 1 kill ratio. The F-22 had a 10 to 1 kill ratio.

Again, the Su-35 is available for sale to anyone. Surely Iran and Venezuela will be interested. Events in Georgia also show we can no longer count out Russia as a future threat.

The future F-35 is more than sufficient

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and his deputy, Gordon England, have been fierce F-22 foes. Though our nation must focus on counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, Gates is dead wrong to assume that these types of conflicts are going to be the only ones we face in the future. The United States could very well face China, Iran, or Russia in a future conventional war.

Gates and England claim that the upcoming Lockheed F-35 Lightning III will suffice to make up the numbers. The Raptor is expensive at around 183 million a pop (I looked for a unit cost for an F-35 but since final numbers are not set, I cannot seem to find it. I do know that its costs have increased as its development continues).

The problem with this argument is that the F-35 has been delayed and was never intended to be a pure air superiority fighter. It was designed to fill the role that the F-16 does for the F-15: a cheaper, more air-to-ground focused fighter. There are even questions in the aerospace press whether the F-35 can even take on the Su-35 in air-to-air combat and prevail every time.

Why should American pilots even have a doubt that they might not prevail against the best that the rest of the world has to offer? Without more F-22s, future F-35 pilots are going to have those doubts.

The F-35 does not have the range, speed, or sensors that the F-22 has. It doesn't have the sort of radar that can detect low flying cruise missiles--which we will surely face from rogue and terrorist regimes sooner than later.

Some in Congress--more with "R" after their name--have questioned Gates. Funding for a new Defense bill in the House and Senate has language adding money to keep Lockheed's assembly line open. Without such funding, Lockheed and its suppliers will shut down F-22 assembly next year.

That said, new Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz has deviated from past Air Force statements (probably afraid of being fired like his predecessor, General Moseley, was for disagreeing with Gates on issues like these) and claimed that though 183 is not enough, 381 are too many. Mindful of not going against Gates like his, it's doubtful he will change his mind. It's up to those of us in the Air Force community to keep hammering the need for more F-22s. Our nation's future security depends more upon this weapon system than any other. Once there are enough Raptors, we can then figure out how to replace the rest of the nation's aging fighters...Oh and figure out how to get the Navy a decent Fifth Generation air superiority fighter!

But if Gates is successful, the United States will soon find itself is analogous to the early years of World War II, when American pilots flew outmoded and inferior fighters to what their Japanese and German counterparts flew. It was only through sheer skill and tenacity that the United States was able to hold its own until superior aircraft were taken into service. Yet how many American pilots died over such places as Wake Island and North Africa because they flew inferior aircraft? How many might die over the Taiwan Straits or the Caucasus because of the procurement mistakes that Secretary Gates is making now?



Two F-22A Raptors from the 3rd Fighter Wing, Elmendorf AFB, Alaska, U.S. Air Force photo by TSGT Mikal Canfield